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Winter will be warmer than normal, with above-normal precipitation. Brown indicates areas where experts forecast drought will persist or worsen. Calf Canyon-Hermit Creek Fire near Holman, New Mexico, on May 8, 2022. One controversial hypothesis proposes that an area of western Coloradoone of the islands that dotted the early Carboniferous seawas, in fact, glaciated. Although the mountain building that occurred during this event was mostly far to the east, the Southwest was influenced by both fluctuating sea levels and a few significant tectonic changes. The average annual temperature in most of the Southwest is predicted to rise 2.2 to 5.5C (4 to 10F) by 2100. Topics covered on this page: Present climate of the southwestern U.S.; Present temperature; Present precipitation; Severe weather; Regional climate variation; Past climate of the southwestern U.S.; Paleozoic; Mesozoic; Cenozoic; Future climate of the southwestern U.S.; Resources. The summer precipitation total for the CONUS was 9.48 inches, 1.16 inch above average, ranking eighth wettest in the historical record. Bear Lake and Glacier Gorge, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, 2011. Introduction The overall climate of the Southwestits weather patterns over a long period of timetends to be warm and dry. Credits for individual images are given in figure captions. I did a quick comparison of the average JulyAugust rainfall in the monsoon region with the Nio-3.4 index, using 70 years of records. Ordovician deposits across the Southwest indicate warm, shallow seas rich in invertebrate life. Please click here to see any active alerts. While changes in the growing season can have a positive effect on some crops (such as melons and sweet potatoes), altered flowering patterns due to more frost-free days can lead to early bud bursts, damaging perennial crops such as nuts and stone fruits. Source:FEMA National Risk Index. Cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Yuma, and Palm Springs have average highs over 100 F (38 C) during the summer months and lows in the 70s or even 80s. (41-60 degrees.) Precipitation has become more variable from year to year, and heavy downpours across the U.S. have increased in the last 20 years. Warm, moist air from the south occasionally but infrequently moves into Colorado during the summer. These are blog posts, not official agency communications; if you quote from these posts or from the comments section, you should attribute the quoted material to the blogger or commenter, not to NOAA, CPC, or Climate.gov. Average annual preciptiation for the southwestern U.S. This chapter builds on assessments of climate change in the Southwest region from the three previous U.S. National Climate Assessments. :https://earthathome.org/de/talk-about-climate/, Digital Encyclopedia of Earth Science: What is climate? The Southwest's Triassic to Jurassic dune deposits are some of the most extensive in the world, and the dune field that existed during the Jurassic may be the largest in Earth history. It's made up of the states of Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. For the climate on early Earth prior to 541 million years ago, see the Introduction to Climate section. UK regional climates - Met Office Glaciers covered most of the world's southern landmasses, which were located over the South Pole. However, while the effect of warming on the storms is uncertain, temperatures have been increasing. Likewise, its not yet clear how the monsoon is changing in the warming climate, or how it will in the future. Figure by climate.gov; data from CPC Unified data. It smoldered beneath the ground as a dormant holdover, sleeper, or zombie fire until April, when it flared up and grew into a wildfire, an almost unprecedented occurrence in the Southwest. In the latest Cretaceous, sea level dropped again and the western Southwest became a broad coastal plain that hosted lush forests, abundant dinosaurs, and large swamps. The Southwest experiences nearly every variety of extreme weather; heat snaps and cold waves, droughts, floods, blizzards, and even tornados are all considerations for residents of the southwestern states. By comparison, the average high and low temperatures for the entire United States are 17C (63F) and 5C (41F), respectively. July 1August 22, 2021 precipitation shown as a percent of the average July 1August 22, based on 19792020. Accessed March 2021. www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag. Convection occurs when buoyant warm air rises (moves up) while denser cool air sinks (moves down). August 2021 National Climate Report | National Centers for Shiprock, a volcanic monadnock in San Juan County, New Mexico, rises roughly 483 meters (1583 feet) above the desert plain. Page snapshot:Introduction to the climate of the southwestern United States, including present, past, and future climate. Some regions have received more than 200% of the average rainfall, and Tucson recorded its wettest month ever this July. Photo credits: 1916 photo from USGS (public domain), 2013 photo by daveynin (flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image resized). Copyright 2021 Paleontological Research Institution. Photoandreconstructionby National Park Service/NPS (public domain). Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 10:13. During the winter, moisture travels from the west, as storms from the Pacific Ocean move east. This map shows how the average air temperature from 2000 to 2020has differed from the long-term average (18952020). Although much of the Southwest falls within the category of an arid zone, using a single label to describe the Southwest's climate would belie its diversity. The pyrocumulonimbus cloud shown at the arrow was created by heat from the fire. The risk of dangerous wildfires is currently very high in parts of the Southwest. The Southwest contributes significantly to climate change. On the other hand, New Mexico and northern Mexico are near or a bit below average. Shelly sandstones in Utah represent vast tidal flats. By comparison, the average high and low temperatures for the entire United States are 17C (63F) and 5C (41F), respectively. Photo of USNM PAL 165239 by Crinoid Type Project (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain). By 2070, one can expect up to 38 more days of freeze-free weather each year. Rainfall, as anyone who has read the ENSO Blog before will know, is an extremely complicated thing to predict! As average temperatures rise and the Southwest becomes drier with a longer annual fire season (season conducive to the ignition and spread of wildfires), the number and intensity of wildfires is expected to increase. The Palmer Index is calculated from precipitation and temperature measurements at weather stations, and has been used widely for many years. Precipitation forms. Because higher temperatures mean greater evaporation and warmer air can hold more water, precipitation will occur in greater amounts at a time, but less frequently. Copyright 2021 Paleontological Research Institution. Climate at a glance. I listened to the Southwest Climate Podcast from CLIMAS, the Climate Assessment for the Southwest, to learn more about what affects the monsoon and its rainfall, and how Monsoon 2021 is shaping up, and reached out to the podcast co-hosts, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins, for help with this post. Recent warming within the Southwest has been among the most rapid in the United States, and models predict that the area's climate will continue to warm. The Southwest has a very unique culture, climate, and geography. SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS. Across New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah, summer rains originate from moisture brought into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. Photo by Stefan Klein (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped and resized). Natural variability, changes in irrigation practices, and other diversions of water for human use can influence certain drought-related measurements. In the Southwest, average precipitation ranges from only 34 centimeters (13.4 inches) in Utah to 39.9 centimeters (15.7 inches) in Colorado, which reflects the area's general aridity. Photo by Daniel Mayer (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license, image resized). The strengthened Gulf Stream carried more warm, moist air with it into the northern Atlantic, which caused increased snowfall in high latitudes, leading to accelerating cooling. Global temperatures fell further in the late Miocene thanks to the formation of the Himalayas. Cattle ranches throughout the southwestern states rely on rain-fed grazing forage, making them extremely susceptible to climate change and drought. Here on Earth: Regional Guides to Earth Science, Earth Science of the Southwestern United States, Climate of the Southwestern United States. The monsoon starts to develop in Mexico in June, and moves into the U.S. Southwest in July. Rainfall associated with the monsoon is very important for the region. The map in Figure 1 shows how average annual temperatures in the Southwest from 2000 to 2020differed from the average over the entire period since widespread temperature records became available (18952020). Ideas and explanations found in these posts should be attributed to the ENSO blog team, and not to NOAA (the agency) itself. Modified from a map by Adam Peterson (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license). Photo source:National Park Service (public domain). Kppen climate map of the 48 contiguous states of the continental United States. Left imageandright imageby NickLongrich (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, images cropped and resized). Asia, Climate of Southwest | SpringerLink Center:As warm air rises, cool air sinks. Left (1):Leaves of a seedling. Water is already scarce in the Southwest, so every drop is a precious resource. Also, the occasional eastern Pacific tropical storm can increase monsoon moisture and rainfall. Petrified log at Escalante Petrified Forest State Park, Jurassic Morrison Formation, Garfield County, Utah. Data from the Northeast Regional Climate Center Applied Climate Information System; 2079-2099 image shows the weighted mean of downscaled CMIP5 models in the LOCA dataset. Some earlier studies suggested that El Nio may be related to lower JulyAugust rainfall, and La Nia related to higher rainfall, due to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Climate Impacts in the Southwest | Climate Change Impacts | US EPA Southwest | U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit Percent of total annual precipitation occurring during JulySeptember, based on 19792020 using CPC Unified rain-gauge-based data. Another player is land-surface feedbackswetter soils provide more moisture to the air through evaporation. Photo of USNM 166396 from the Cretaceous Atlas of Ancient Life(Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped). Temperature and drought data come from a network of thousands of weather stations overseen by the National Weather Service. Winter precipitation often involves large-scale frontal systems. Lower latitudes receive more heat from the sun over the course of a year; for each degree increase in latitude, there is approximately a 1C (2F) decrease in temperature. This section covers the climate of the southwestern U.S. through the Phanerozoic, from about 541 million years ago to the recent. Image above: Sun and storm in Weld County, in the Great Plains region of Colorado, 2015. Lake Mead, the lake created by the Hoover Dam, at two points in time about 21 years apart. Summer rains fall almost entirely during brief but intense thunderstorms on the Great Plains, although the occasional hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico may push heavier precipitation inland. Water vapor animation for the afternoon of August 22, 2018 showing the monsoon circulation and thunderstorm formation (dark blue, green, dark red). Water, climate change, and sustainability in the Southwest. The North American Monsoon is a seasonal change in the atmospheric circulation that occurs as the summer sun heats the continental land mass. Typically, a storm blows itself out once the warm air has moved up and the cool air has moved down. Shallow seaways spread over many of the continents, including South America, Africa, Eurasia, and North America. Indeed, much of this region has low annual rainfall and seasonally high temperatures that contribute to its characteristic desert climate. Snowpack helps keep the ground and soil moist by covering it longer into the spring and summer, which delays the onset of the fire season and influences the prevalence and severity of wildfires. See the Drought indicator for more information about these indices. Volcanic activity intensified in the Southwest, and the Basin and Range region began to form, leading to the topography that is seen in those areas today (i.e., low valleys alternating with high mountain ranges). Temperature and Precipitation | CLIMAS Every part of the Southwest experienced higher average temperatures between 2000 and 2020than the long-term average (18952020). In the Silurian and Devonian (430 to 359 million years ago), North America moved north across the equator, and the cycle of warming and cooling was repeated yet again. Warmer temperatures also make it easier for insect pests to overwinter and produce more generations. Later in the Jurassic, the climate became more moderate; dune fields were replaced by rivers and floodplains populated by a rich dinosaur fauna (exemplified by the Morrison Formation) and large trees along rivers, streams, and grasslands.